Superforecasting

Superforecasting draws on research from the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of forecasting accuracy funded by IARPA. Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner synthesize findings showing that ordinary people can dramatically improve their ability to predict geopolitical and economic events through training in probabilistic thinking, decomposition of complex problems, and intellectual humility.

The book profiles successful forecasters and contrasts their methods with expert intuition, demonstrating that systematic approaches outperform traditional expertise. Key techniques include breaking large questions into smaller, estimable components; updating beliefs in response to new evidence; and maintaining calibration between confidence and accuracy.

Superforecasting became influential in decision-making circles, corporate strategy, and policy analysis. It challenged conventional wisdom about expertise and prediction, arguing that forecasting skill is learnable rather than innate. The work has been widely adopted in business, government, and academic settings as a practical guide to reducing uncertainty in high-stakes decisions.