AI Arms Race

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AI Arms Race | SuperFutures

Personas

Persona 1: The Defense Strategist – Views AI through strategic competition and deterrence.
Persona 2: The Dual-Use Researcher – Builds AI for civilian and military use; navigates ethical ambiguity.
Hard-believer profile: Name & Age: Col. (Ret.) James Harrington, 58. Occupation: Senior fellow at a defense policy think tank; former military intelligence officer with three decades of service; advises Congressional committees on AI and national security. Location: Arlington, Virginia. Daily Life: Reads intelligence briefings and think tank publications at dawn. Testifies before Congressional committees. Writes classified and unclassified assessments of Chinese AI capabilities. Attends defense industry conferences. Briefs Pentagon officials on AI strategy. Watches AI capabilities announcements as military intelligence targets. Media Diet: RAND publications, CNAS reports, Foreign Affairs, War on the Rocks, classified briefings. Reads Kissinger and Allison as foundational. Watches WarGames with his grandchildren to explain what he does. Finds Silicon Valley AI discourse naively apolitical. Core Conviction: AI is the most consequential military technology since nuclear weapons. Whoever achieves AI superiority will dominate the 21st century. China understands this. Russia understands this. If the US does not win the AI race, the consequences for the free world will be catastrophic and irreversible. Safety is important, but strategic defeat is worse. Social Circle: Military officers, defense analysts, intelligence professionals, Congressional staffers. Respects AI researchers but finds them dangerously naive about geopolitics. Biggest Fear: That the US falls behind China in military AI capabilities due to regulatory overreach, ethical hand-wringing, and a failure of political will, leading to a shift in the global balance of power that cannot be reversed. Biggest Hope: That the US and its allies maintain decisive AI superiority, using it to deter conflict and preserve the liberal international order for another generation.

AI Arms Race

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